Psychologists Help Society in so Many Ways

Portrait of Ron Cumming, aeronautical engineer, psychologist, pioneer (with Ross Day) of human factors in Australia

Ten Years Applying Psychological Science Inside the U.K. Government is fascinating. It prompted this post and is at 6. below, but first a back story.

TL;DR. Main points:

  1. Ron Cumming, my father, pioneered human factors in Australia in the 1960s.
  2. Human factors, or user-centred design (UCD), is the design of devices and systems to be safe, easy, and effective for users.
  3. Ron and colleagues persuaded Victorian politicians to pass in 1970 the world’s first compulsory seat belt laws–road fatalities dropped immediately.
  4. Thaler & Sunstein’s Nudge gave examples of how simple changes in messages and systems can help people make better choices.
  5. I taught UCD at La Trobe for many years. Students had great fun identifying easy ways to improve the design of everyday things simply by watching and talking to real users. Some tell me they were inspired to go on and work in the field.
  6. In her fascinating column Ten Years Applying Psychological Science Inside the U.K. Government Carla Groom describes how nudge and UCD ideas can be used to make dramatic improvements to people’s lives. And how psychology PhDs can be effective leaders in such non-academic roles.

User Centred Design

A UCD classic, published in 1988, needed little updating for a new edition in 2012

A few examples in the first lecture and the students were saying “this is obvious, why isn’t everything done this way?” Don Norman‘s first few pages prompt the same reaction.

It should be obvious whether a door should be pushed or pulled, without labels. A first project: simply observe people as they approach different doors around campus.

Next, ask someone to open an unfamiliar microwave, or turn on the light on the left, or mute this mobile phone. Ask them to ‘think aloud’ as they approach the task, then watch without interrupting.

No RCT, control group, or fancy statistics required. Watch just a few users before–if you can–redesigning the object or system. Then do it again, and again. But you need real users–old, young, left-handed, neurodiverse, not speaking your language, perhaps disabled…

It can be frustrating. You quickly start noting poor design everywhere: why must I type my email in two different places? Why can’t I dislike all the options? Why do I need my glasses to figure out how to turn on the upper shower? …lots of scope for your psychology students to improve the world!

Landing Aircraft Safely

Ron Cumming, my father, was an aeronautical engineer researching crashes at the most dangerous moment in flying–landing. He decided it was largely a perceptual problem–the pilot perhaps needing to land with no visible horizon and only a single line of lights down one side of the runway.

Ron spent 1960 with human factors guru Paul Fitts at the University of Michigan studying psychology. Then he and psychologist Ross Day introduced human factors (ergonomics) to Australia.

Ron and colleagues developed T-VASIS in the 1960s. It was a simple array of lights each side of the runway that indicated to the pilot whether the aircraft was on the ideal glidepath, or needed to fly up or down a little. It was installed in many countries, and some airfields still offer it, despite the widespread use of modern radar systems.

T-VASIS: The view from the cockpit, coming in to land

Leading in Road Safety Was Just the Start

After leading the world with compulsory seat belts, in 1976 Victoria was also first with random breath tests of drivers, with .05 as the alcohol limit. Ron and Ross, as the two psychology professors at Monash University, set up the Monash University Accident Research Centre. The good work of MUARC continues.

In 1987 Victoria set up VicHealth as the world’s first health promotion foundation under legislation claimed to set the standard for international best practice by banning tobacco advertising and diverting those advertising dollars to fund anti-smoking campaigns and buy out tobacco sponsorship of sport and the arts.

The Slip-Slop-Slap campaign: Slip on a shirt, Slop on sunscreen, Slap on a hat,

In 1988 VicHealth funded launch of SunSmart, with the aim of changing behaviour to increase protection against UV in sunlight and thus reduce skin cancer. For example, with its Slip-Slop-Slap campaign.

These and other public behaviour change programs have saved numerous lives, averted much suffering, and reduced health costs. Psychologists continue to play prominent roles in all these programs.

Carla Groom Diagnosed as Autistic at 44

Dr Carla Groom, the then Head of Human Centred Design Science, U. K. Department of Work and Pensions was interviewed about her later-in-life formal diagnosis as autistic, at age 44. Again she is fascinating, here in recounting how the diagnosis explained for her so much about herself and how she worked.

She tells of the strategies she uses to support other neurodiverse people to be their most effective and, more generally, how she builds diverse–usually multi-disciplinary–teams, which tend to be better at problem solving.

Training PhDs to Be Effective in Non-Academic UCD and Nudge Work

Ten Years Applying Psychological Science Inside the U.K. Government offers lessons for how postgraduate education can be broadened to prepare PhDs to work and lead effectively beyond the academy. Including: study qualitative research methods, learn to write for a general audience as well as for academic journals, work in multi-disciplinary groups, and undertake messy real-world projects.

Such as helping pilots to land safely, or nudging everyone to wear a wide-brimmed hat and apply sunscreen.

Geoff

Research Priorities in Climate and Health Research

The best research method–of course–but also philosophy, ethics, global heating and health: What more could we want? This article, below, discusses all that and more. And, by the way, the lead author happens to be my son, Toby Cumming.

Here’s the abstract:
Toby Cumming

Rapid global warming is triggering a wide range of changes to the climate, and these changes are compromising many aspects of human health and well-being. As a research community, we lack the time and resources to investigate the efficacy of every possible climate adaptation strategy for protecting health. Thus, we require a logical and ethical framework to inform prioritization of our climate-health research efforts. In this paper, we propose a utilitarian approach: our research focus should be on adaptation strategies that provide the greatest health and well-being for the greatest number. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) – equal to one year of healthy life lost – allows us to compare across markedly different health outcomes and adaptation approaches. Given the importance of cost-effectiveness in resource-constrained settings, we could prioritize adaptation approaches based on “cost per DALY averted”. Equally, we could base a priority ranking on “cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained”. A DALY- or QALY-based ranking would not be the end product, but a quantifiable first step to frame prioritization discussions. Adopting a utilitarian approach is useful in extending this frame beyond considering only the health of current-day humans to also consider the health of future humans and the suffering of non-human animals. While the approach does have limits – to ensure an equitable prioritization we need to consider aspects of fairness and justice, moral concepts that utilitarianism has some difficulty incorporating – we argue that it provides a helpful starting point in prioritizing the climate-health adaptation research agenda.

Finally

My congratulations to Toby and co-authors. For Toby, I happen to know this article draws heavily on his theoretical essay written, way back, as part of his Honours year in Psychology at La Trobe University. It was his outstanding performance in that year that took him to Cambridge for a PhD–and a wonderful three years of playing golf at the best courses up and down the British Isles. His PhD supervisor’s initial suggestion for his thesis title was “What I did when I wasn’t playing golf”. His recent passion project has been this book about the Australian golf courses designed in the 1950s and ’60s by Vern Morcom.

Whether you have a taste for climate change and health, or golf, please enjoy!

Geoff

John Self, AI Pioneer, Chats With ChatGPT

A Chat with ChatGPT by a veteran AI researcher

John Self entered the field of AI in the early 1970s. He’s a distinguished scholar who can claim to have introduced the idea of user model in his 1974 article (while visiting The University of Melbourne). He was writing in the context of AI in Education, a field in which he was a pioneer and long-time leader. Released in 2005, his last AI book is humane and broad, on open access and an excellent read: Whoever Said Computers Would be Intelligent 

John generously hosted what was for me an important sabbatical, in Lancaster in 1988. For a couple of decades back then my research was as a psychologist in AIEd. Many in that field (not John, and not some of the other leading lights) were IT tragics with a view that human learning was little more than turning on the tap to fill the bucket. John’s landmark contribution in 1974 was to recognise that any IT (‘intelligent tutor’, the pretentious term back then) that individualised its response to a student must contain a model of that student. The crudest might be merely a note of where that student was up to in the book. Typically it would comprise a record of previous student work, correct responses and errors, and earlier comments by the IT.

Early Intelligent Tutors (ITs)

Many of those early ITs supported learners to achieve impressive gains on tests, especially in science and computing fields. Interactions resembled those in ‘direct instruction’ classrooms. Direct instruction is highly structured and is coming back into vogue in many countries, often for early reading and numeracy. However, then as now, many students find the interactions stultifying. Grit your teeth and use an IT to quickly get up to speed with LISP! But a fulfilling education, perhaps not 🙁

Learner Models in ITs

My role in AIEd was often to be the maverick critic, despairing of the poverty of typical learner models. I and colleagues studied transcripts of tutoring interactions of expert teachers with individual learners when given occasional chances to interact. Think of a teacher wandering in a class working as individuals. The teacher has a brief interaction with an individual, initiated by a student requesting help, or the teacher walking by and choosing to interrupt.

Human Tutoring and Learner Models

Not surprisingly, the interactions were often brief, just a single Q&A in either direction, or little more. But they were highly diverse. The Q might be about motivation, feelings, seemingly irrelevant things that affect the learner’s work and thinking. Brief explanations can of course be valuable, but possibly the most valuable comments were often much higher-level, about strategy, or motivation. “Inspiring” is possibly the most valuable teacher ability, as hopefully we all remember. Human teachers have learner models for their individual learners. These models are likely fragmentary in many respects, but they are, most importantly, highly diverse. Achieving this richness was the enormous challenge for IT researchers seeking to model good tutoring. It remains a core challenge for any AI intended to be used by a person.

Rainbow over Kisdon in Swaledale: From the home page of Saunterings

John the Fell Runner and Hill Walker

For decades John was an immensely fit fell runner, spending hours and days in the hills of North-West England. He stopped running in 2017, then from 2018 has been posting online reflections and great photos from his Saunterings in the hills, dales, and moors near Lancaster and surrounds.

ChatGPT’s User Model

John started by asking “What do you think of Saunterings by John Self?” I’m guessing John had front of mind trying to diagnose ChatGPT’s model of its user–John. What did it know about, what did it assume about John? John gives his own commentary, commenting on the AI responses and telling us a little of his own thinking. Lots of fascinating stuff there, especially as John picks apart what seems to be underlying the conversation.

ChatGPT adopts a chatty, deferential, friendly, explanatory style, quick to apologise and explain its own errors. John could of course ask it to adopt a different perspective and style–it immediately did so, and quite convincingly.

John’s Insights

John’s first overall reaction was astonishment that ChatGPT could do so well, and so blindingly fast. Then follows pure gold as John extends his Q&A to investigate various thoughts about how the IT works, what assumptions it makes, how it formulates opinions, and where its boundaries lie. To what extent does it build a model of John? To what extent is it merely integrating the results from a huge number of searches, or is it reasoning about these? John eventually concludes that he cannot trust ChatGPT and cannot follow its reasoning–because there isn’t any. I won’t try to summarise: you need to read John’s final paragraphs to get the rich story.

Extremely well-informed gold!

Geoff

Knowing Statistics Can Lead You To the Heart of Government

…even to being a key financial Minister in Federal Parliament.

After the recent Australian election, Labor took power. (Hooray!) The new Assistant Minister for Treasury is Andrew Leigh. He’s one of the small team responsible for all things economic and financial, at the heart of Government.

I’ve posted about him before–in 2018 when he published Randomistas, and when he spoke at AIMOS in Melbourne in 2019 (see the highlights para).

Leigh is a Harvard-trained economist and former professor of economics. In Randomistas he argues we should use randomised trials much more often to guide public policy. Imagine, policy guided by high quality evidence! He’s well aware of the replication crisis and Open Science practices needed for trustworthy research.

In his AIMOS talk he discussed replication, His best one-liner: “If at first you DO succeed, try, try and try again.”  Hey, meta-analysis!

Leigh is quoted in a recent interview as saying that he’s probably “the biggest stats nerd” the Australian Bureau of Statistics has had as its minister in its 116-year history. (Nerd can be good!)

It’s a great time for stats nerds and policy makers: First results from the 2021 Australian census are just being released.

Lots of us will be watching anxiously to see how much influence evidence, statistics, and Leigh will have on Labor’s policy making.

Meanwhile, be encouraged–knowing statistics can lead to great things in life.

Geoff

Top Researcher Leaps Sideways into Politics–and Wins!

  • Research skills can lead in all sorts of directions.
  • When it really matters, children can be powerful. (Kids: keep up the pressure on climate!)

Australian voters have just kicked out a climate-denying, coal-loving Federal Coalition Government. This is the remarkable story of a distinguished medical researcher who was so enraged that she stood as an independent. And won! She defeated Josh Frydenberg, the Treasurer, in his formerly safe seat, despite his campaign being backed by the vast resources of the Liberal Party machine.

Quick Background

The ‘Liberal’ Party used to be a true liberal centre-right party. It has often been in power, in coalition with the rural-based National Party. In the last couple of decades the Liberals have shifted to the right. In the last decade the Coalition has been in power, in thrall to fossil fuel interests and becoming increasingly Trumpian under the leadership of Scott Morrison.

The Medical Researcher

Dr Monique Ryan

Dr Monique Ryan was Director of Neurology at The Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne, 400+ pubs, h-index of 51, leader of a highly successful research team. She loved her job but was becoming increasingly worried about the existential threat of climate change and Federal Government inaction. The climate-related anxiety of her 13 year old son weighed on her.

In this interview two months before the election she recounts how last year she responded to a full-page ad placed by Kooyong Independents, a community group seeking a candidate to stand for Parliament. She decided to apply and was selected–whereupon, she reports, her son was the happiest he’d ever been. In mere months Ryan and the group enlisted top professionals to help raise funding and develop a campaign. Astonishingly, 2000 local people, in trademark teal-coloured tee-shirts, volunteered and knocked on all 55,000 doors in the electorate. Ryan nominated climate action, government integrity, and gender equality–all areas of egregious failure by the Coalition Government–as central for her. For more, see her campaign website.

Frydenberg, long touted as a future Prime Minister, had to return from campaigning around the country to defend his home patch. It was a furious campaign, with big resources deployed by both sides. Ryan won and is now heading to Canberra.

Ryan One of Six

Kooyong is an affluent, inner-city electorate, long a Liberal stronghold. Most remarkably, the Kooyong story was repeated in five other such electorates around Australia. In all six cases, a successful woman stood aside from a professional career and campaigned on climate action and one or two other core issues. And won!

Finally

My conclusions are the two dot points I started with. (And well done to Ryan’s son…)

BTW, Greens representation increased from 1 to 4 in the Lower House, 9 to 12 in the Upper House: Increased climate action at last, tho’ never sufficient.

In hope,

Geoff

The Grand Challenges of Psychological Science: Climate Change

As part of its strategic planning, APS recently asked members to identify the ‘grand challenges‘ for our discipline. I wrote, of course, about climate change. The latest APS Observer summarised responses from members from all round the world. The article is here.

These are the grand challenges discussed in the article:

  • Globalization and Diversity — getting beyond WEIRD
  • Research Integrity and Applicability — Open Science, trustworthiness and practical usefulness
  • Collaboration Across Fields and Disciplines
  • Climate Change
  • Communication, Polarization, and Public Trust
  • Strengthening Theory–and the Road Ahead

Climate Change

Here’s how the section on climate change started:

As a basic matter of societal survival, addressing climate change stood out among the priorities of APS members in
every generational cohort. “In my list of top 10 priorities for urgent research, application, and outreach attention, climate change would occupy Positions 1, 2, and 3, and probably a couple more slots as well,” wrote Geoff Cumming, a retired APS Fellow and quantitative psychologist from La Trobe University. “So many other urgent priorities, such as food supply, severe weather events, inequality, violence, disease and pandemic risks, safe water supply, livable housing, discrimination … all are exacerbated by climate change. Basically, if we don’t make massive strides on climate change mitigation and adaptation, then our children and grandchildren will have little or no chance of a decent life.”

Effecting positive action, he added, “requires attitude and behavior change—the very core business of psychological science.” He called upon all research fields within the discipline “to take on relevant climate change topics, challenges, and opportunities.”

…then the article went on to quote several other members’ proposals about priorities for psychological research and application for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Indeed!

Geoff

Where a Psychology Major Might Lead

The brain…, the climate crisis…, sustainability with children…, healthy homes…, RCTs…, statistical reform…, and even golf.

If you have a student wondering where a psychology major might lead, suggest they have a veg out and listen to Toby’s story (at that page, scroll down a little).

A few waypoints:

0.50 Start

1.20 Brain

2.00 Kids and sustainability, climate crisis

3.00 Cognition, studying psychology

5.00 Stroke, cognition, brain damage

7.00 Brain imaging, cognitive testing

11.20 Enjoying stats

13.10 Crusade against p values and statistical significance

13.50 Healthy homes

16.40 Blood pressure! Health benefits. Inefficient houses.

24.40 Collecting data

26.40 RCT design and ethics

32.00 Outcomes, cost-benefit, data driven policy

40.00 Electrify!

46.20 Golf. Toby’s book.

Happy listening,

Geoff

PS Yes, Toby is our son 🙂

Psychological Inoculation? Prebunking? Assessing the Bad News Game That Targets Fake News

Trying to debunk a conspiracy theory by presenting facts and evidence often doesn’t work ☹ Perhaps prebunking, by giving insight into why fake news can appear credible, might help?

To put it another way, psychological inoculation presents a mild form of misinformation, preferably with explanation, in the hope of building resistance to real-life fake news. A vaccine for fake news!

Research on debunking and psychological inoculation is promising, and has practical spin-offs, including the Bad News game. A nice 2020 study by Melisa Basol and colleagues in Psychology at Cambridge (UK) reports evidence that this game can work as a fake news vaccine. (We’re considering this study as an example for ITNS2. Can you think of other studies we might consider? Please let’s know. More on this below.) First, the game.

The Bad News Game

Home page is here, see an information sheet here, play the game here. Playing is easy, quick, and absorbing, imho. You encounter mock Twitter fake news messages that illustrate six common strategies for making fake news memorable or believable. Below is an example of each. You make choices between messages and decide which ones to “forward” as you try to build your number of “followers”. Rather like real life for a conspiracy theorist wanting to spread the word.

Example fictitious fake news tweets that illustrate six strategies for making fake news memorable or believable

The Evaluation Study

Basol et al. (2020) is here. The online participants first saw a random ordering of 18 fictitious fake news tweets, such as those above, 3 of each of the 6 types. They rated each for reliability (accuracy, believability), and rated their confidence in that reliability rating. Those in the BadNews group then played the game for about 15 minutes, whereas those in the Control group played Tetris instead. Then all once again gave reliability and confidence ratings for the 18 tweets.

Overall, reliability ratings decreased after playing Bad News but hardly changed in the Control group, the difference of those differences being d = -0.59. Confidence ratings increased in the Bad News group but hardly changed in the Control group, the difference of those differences being d = 0.52. Playing Bad News not only led to reduced trust in the fake news messages, but increased confidence in seeing them as untrustworthy. That’s great.

Here’s the esci figure for the analysis of the change in reliability ratings from before to after playing one of the games. It’s from our latest version of esci in jamovi, not yet released, but you can generate figures like this using the released version from here.

Mean change in reliability ratings and 95% CIs for the two groups. Small red and blue dots are individual data points. The green triangle is the difference between the group means, with its 95% CI, plotted on the difference axis at right.

Finding Examples for ITNS2—Please Help

Basol et al. is well done, the data are available online, the design is simple and the research question is important and, surely, of interest to today’s students. Just the type of example we’re seeking for consideration for ITNS2.

It’s difficult to find such studies. If you know of any, please to let us know, even if they may not tick all our boxes. Good studies of a psychological aspect of climate change, pandemic, fake news, discrimination, violence, inequality… these and more could be just what we need. Many thanks.

Happy playing,

Geoff

Basol, M., Roozenbeek, J., & van der Linden, S. (2020). Good news about Bad News: Gamified inoculation boosts confidence and cognitive immunity against fake news. Journal of Cognition, 3(1): 2, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.5334/joc.91

Will that result replicate? Contribute some judgments to Fiona’s repliCATS project

Just had an update about Fiona’s big project to study how well researchers can judge the chance that some result can be replicated. She and the team are doing well, but need a last push during July to meet their target. Consider signing up to make a few judgments (and maybe win some cash). Sorry–I’m not really a used-car salesperson.

I posted about the project, repliCATS, here. In short: “…the largest ever empirical study on how scientists reason about other scientists’ work, and what factors makes them trust it.” It’s right at the core of understanding and advancing Open Science.

At workshops around the world, more recently all online, the team has collected a big database of judgments about claims made in reports of research. Would the claim replicate? The team seeks judgments by anyone from undergraduates to seasoned researchers, in any of a wide range of social and behavioural science disciplines.

Please do consider signing up. Details are here.

Latest news: The project has just been expanded to include assessment of claims being made in the social and behavioural sciences about COVID-19. Work to start in August. You can sign up for that also.

Transparency of reporting sort of saves the day…

I’m in the midst of an unhappy experience serving as a peer reviewer. The situation is still evolving but I thought I’d put up a short post describing (in general terms) what’s happened because I’d be happy to have some advice/input/reactions. Oh yeah, this is a post by Bob (not Geoff).

I am reviewing a paper that initially seemed quite solid. In the first round of review my main suggestion was to add more detail and transparency: to report the exact items used to measure the main construct, the exact filler items used to obscure the purpose of the experiment, any exclusions, etc.

The authors complied, but on reading the more detailed manuscript I found something really bizarre: the items used to measure the main construct changed from study to study, and often items that would seem to be related to the main construct were deemed filler from one study to the next.

Let’s say the main construct was self-esteem (it was not). In the first experiment there were several items used to measure self-esteem, all quite reasonable. But in a footnote giving the filler items I found not only genuine filler (“I like puppies”) but also items that seem clearly related to self-esteem… things as egregious as “I have high self esteem”. WTF? Then, in the next experiment the authors write that they measured their construct similarly but list different items, including 1 that had been deemed filler from experiment 1. Double-WTF! And, looking at the filler items listed in a footnote I again find items that would seem to be related to their construct. I also find a scale that seemed clearly intended as a manipulation check but which has not been mentioned or analyzed in either version of the manuscript (under-reporting!). The next experiments repeat the same story–described as measured in the same way but always different items and some head-scratching filler items.

There were other problems now detectable with the more complete manuscript. For example, it was revealed (in a footnote) that statistical significance of a key experiment was contingent on removal of a single outlier; something that had not been mentioned before! But the main one that has me upset is what seems to be highly questionable measurement.

One easy lesson I’ve learned from this is how important it is as a reviewer to push for full and transparent reporting. Without key details on how constructs were measured, what else was measured, what participants were excluded, etc. it would have been impossible to detect deficiencies in the evidence presented.

What has me agitated is what happens now. I sent back my concerns to the editor. If the problems are as severe as I thought (I could be wrong), I expect the paper will be rejected. But what happens next? These authors were clearly willing to submit a less-complete manuscript before. What if they submit the original version elsewhere, the one that makes it impossible to detect the absurdity of their measurement approach? The original manuscript seemed amazing; I have no doubt it could be published somewhere quite good. So has my push for transparent really saved the day, or will it just end up helping the authors better know what they should and shouldn’t include in the manuscript to get it published?

At this point, I don’t know. I’m still in the middle of this. But here are some possible outcomes:

  • It’s all just a misunderstanding: The authors could reply to my review and clarify that their measurement strategy was consistent and sensible but not correctly represented in the manuscript. That’d be fine; I’d feel much less agitated.
  • The authors re-analyze the data with consistent measurement and resubmit to the journal, letting the significance chips fall where they may. That’d also be fine. Rooting for this one.
  • The authors shelve the project. Perhaps the authors will just give up on the manuscript. To my mind this is a terrible outcome–they have 3 experiments involving almost hundreds of participants testing an important theory. I’d really like to know what the data says when properly analyzed. The suppression of negative evidence from the literature is the most critical failure of our current scientific norms. I feel like, in some ways, once you submit a paper to review it almost *has* to be published in some way, especially with the warts revealed… wouldn’t that be useful for emptying the file drawer and also deepening how we evaluate each other’s work?
  • The authors submit elsewhere, reverting to the previous manuscript that elided all the embarrassing details and which gave an impression of presenting very solid evidence for the theory. I suspect this is the most likely outcome. Nothing new to this. I remember one advisor in grad school who said (jokingly) that the first submission is to reveal all the mistakes you need to cover up. I guess the frustrating thing here is how uneven transparent reporting still is. I was one of 4 reviewers for this paper and I was the only one who asked for these additional details. If the authors want to go this route, I think they’ll have an easy time finding a journal that doesn’t push them for the details. How long until we plug those gaps? Why are we still reviewing for or publishing journals that don’t take transparent reporting seriously?

I’ll suppose I should organize a betting pool. Any predictions out there? What odds would you give for these different outcomes? Also, I’d be happy to hear your comments and/or similar stories.

Last but not least, here are some questions on my mind from this experience:

  • How much longer before we can consider sketchy practices like this full-out research misconduct? I mean if you are working in this field can you any longer plead ignorance? At this point shouldn’t you clearly know that flexible measurement and exclusions are corrupt research practices? If this situation is as bad as I think it is, does it cross the threshold to actual misconduct? I could forgive those who engaged in this type of work in the past (and I know I did, myself), but at this point I don’t want any colleagues who would be willing to pass off this type of noise-mining as science.
  • Would under-reporting elsewhere transform a marginal case of research misconduct into a clear case? Even if initially submitting a p-hacked manuscript doesn’t yet qualify as a clear-cut case of research misconduct, would re-submitting it elsewhere after the problems have been pointed out to you count as research misconduct?
  • Does treating the review process like a confessional exacerbate these problems? My understanding (which some have challenged on Twitter) is that the review process is confidential and that I can not reveal/publicize knowledge I gained through the review process alone. Based on that, I don’t think I would have any public recourse if the authors were to publish a less-complete manuscript elsewhere. My basis for criticizing it would be my knowledge of which items were and were not considered filler, knowledge I would only have from the review process. So I think my hands would be tied–I wouldn’t be able to notify the editor, write a letter to the editor, post to pubPeer, etc. without breaking the confidentiality of the review. I’m not sure if journal editors are as bound by this..so perhaps the editor at the original journal could say something? I don’t know. This is all still so hypothetical at this point that I don’t plan on worrying about it yet. But if I do eventually see a non-transparent manuscript from these authors in print I’ll have to seriously consider what my obligations and responsibilities are. It would be a terrible shame to have a prominent theory supported and cited in the literature by what I suspect to be nonsense; but I’d have to figure out how to balance that harm against my responsibilities for confidential review.

Ok – had to get that all out of my head. Now back to the sh-tstorm that is the fall 2019 semester. Peace, y’all.