Category: Uncategorized

The Shape of a Confidence Interval: Cat’s Eye or Plausibility Picture, and What About Cliff?

In brief: Curves picture how likelihood varies across and beyond a CI. Which is better: One curve (plausibility picture) or two (cat’s eye)? Which should we use in ITNS2? Curves can discourage dichotomous decision making based on a belief that

The ASA and p Values: Here We Go Again

The above announcement is from the February ASA (American Statistical Association) newsletter. (See p. 7 for the announcement and the list of 15 members of the Task Force.) Why won’t statistical significance simply whither and die, taking p<.05 and maybe

Not so Difficult? This Parrot ‘Gets’ Statistical Inference

If you have tramped or climbed in New Zealand’s high country, as I did for a couple of months many moons ago, you’ve probably spent hours watching kea exploring or ‘playing’. Kea are large parrots with wicked-looking beaks that are

A Tribute to Wayne Velicer

Wayne Velicer was a giant among quantitative psychologists and health researchers, among other groups. I was very fortunate to be able to call him a colleague and good friend. Sadly, he died too young, in October 2017. The journal Multivariate

Bushfires and Open Science: A View From Australia

Our Family Summer in a Time of Fires We’re just back home after a couple of weeks at the big old family beach house. We had one stinking hot day, 40+ degrees, but, strangely, other days were cool to cold,

I Join an RCT: A View From the Other Side

In ITNS we discuss randomized control trials (RCTs) and I’ve taught about them since whenever. If done well, they should provide gold standard evidence about the benefits and harms of a therapy. So I was particularly interested to be invited

Open Statistics Conference – Talk and Resources

I had the great pleasure today of discussing the estimation approach (New Statistics) at the Open Statistics / Open Eyes conference in Cesena, University of Bologna. Here I’m posting some resources for those looking to get started with the New

The Cookie-Monster Study: The highly influential memory of a long-lost study

In psychology, there are a few studies so famous and influential that they have proper names: The Good Samaritan Study, the Asch Obedience Study, the Marshmallow test, etc, etc. Approaching this echelon is the “Cookie Monster Study”, an increasingly-famous study

Reply to Lakens: The correctly-used p value needs an effect size and CI

Updated 5/21: fixed a typo, added a section on when p > .05 demonstrates a negligible effect, and added a figure at the end. Daniel Lakens recently posted a pre-print with a rousing defense of the much-maligned p-value: In essence, the

Joining the fractious debate over how to do science best

At the end of the month (March 2019) the American Statistical Association will publish a special issue on statistical inference “after p values”. The goal of the issue is to focus on the statistical “dos” rather than statistical “don’ts”. Across

Top