Psychologists Help Society in so Many Ways

Portrait of Ron Cumming, aeronautical engineer, psychologist, pioneer (with Ross Day) of human factors in Australia

Ten Years Applying Psychological Science Inside the U.K. Government is fascinating. It prompted this post and is at 6. below, but first a back story.

TL;DR. Main points:

  1. Ron Cumming, my father, pioneered human factors in Australia in the 1960s.
  2. Human factors, or user-centred design (UCD), is the design of devices and systems to be safe, easy, and effective for users.
  3. Ron and colleagues persuaded Victorian politicians to pass in 1970 the world’s first compulsory seat belt laws–road fatalities dropped immediately.
  4. Thaler & Sunstein’s Nudge gave examples of how simple changes in messages and systems can help people make better choices.
  5. I taught UCD at La Trobe for many years. Students had great fun identifying easy ways to improve the design of everyday things simply by watching and talking to real users. Some tell me they were inspired to go on and work in the field.
  6. In her fascinating column Ten Years Applying Psychological Science Inside the U.K. Government Carla Groom describes how nudge and UCD ideas can be used to make dramatic improvements to people’s lives. And how psychology PhDs can be effective leaders in such non-academic roles.

User Centred Design

A UCD classic, published in 1988, needed little updating for a new edition in 2012

A few examples in the first lecture and the students were saying “this is obvious, why isn’t everything done this way?” Don Norman‘s first few pages prompt the same reaction.

It should be obvious whether a door should be pushed or pulled, without labels. A first project: simply observe people as they approach different doors around campus.

Next, ask someone to open an unfamiliar microwave, or turn on the light on the left, or mute this mobile phone. Ask them to ‘think aloud’ as they approach the task, then watch without interrupting.

No RCT, control group, or fancy statistics required. Watch just a few users before–if you can–redesigning the object or system. Then do it again, and again. But you need real users–old, young, left-handed, neurodiverse, not speaking your language, perhaps disabled…

It can be frustrating. You quickly start noting poor design everywhere: why must I type my email in two different places? Why can’t I dislike all the options? Why do I need my glasses to figure out how to turn on the upper shower? …lots of scope for your psychology students to improve the world!

Landing Aircraft Safely

Ron Cumming, my father, was an aeronautical engineer researching crashes at the most dangerous moment in flying–landing. He decided it was largely a perceptual problem–the pilot perhaps needing to land with no visible horizon and only a single line of lights down one side of the runway.

Ron spent 1960 with human factors guru Paul Fitts at the University of Michigan studying psychology. Then he and psychologist Ross Day introduced human factors (ergonomics) to Australia.

Ron and colleagues developed T-VASIS in the 1960s. It was a simple array of lights each side of the runway that indicated to the pilot whether the aircraft was on the ideal glidepath, or needed to fly up or down a little. It was installed in many countries, and some airfields still offer it, despite the widespread use of modern radar systems.

T-VASIS: The view from the cockpit, coming in to land

Leading in Road Safety Was Just the Start

After leading the world with compulsory seat belts, in 1976 Victoria was also first with random breath tests of drivers, with .05 as the alcohol limit. Ron and Ross, as the two psychology professors at Monash University, set up the Monash University Accident Research Centre. The good work of MUARC continues.

In 1987 Victoria set up VicHealth as the world’s first health promotion foundation under legislation claimed to set the standard for international best practice by banning tobacco advertising and diverting those advertising dollars to fund anti-smoking campaigns and buy out tobacco sponsorship of sport and the arts.

The Slip-Slop-Slap campaign: Slip on a shirt, Slop on sunscreen, Slap on a hat,

In 1988 VicHealth funded launch of SunSmart, with the aim of changing behaviour to increase protection against UV in sunlight and thus reduce skin cancer. For example, with its Slip-Slop-Slap campaign.

These and other public behaviour change programs have saved numerous lives, averted much suffering, and reduced health costs. Psychologists continue to play prominent roles in all these programs.

Carla Groom Diagnosed as Autistic at 44

Dr Carla Groom, the then Head of Human Centred Design Science, U. K. Department of Work and Pensions was interviewed about her later-in-life formal diagnosis as autistic, at age 44. Again she is fascinating, here in recounting how the diagnosis explained for her so much about herself and how she worked.

She tells of the strategies she uses to support other neurodiverse people to be their most effective and, more generally, how she builds diverse–usually multi-disciplinary–teams, which tend to be better at problem solving.

Training PhDs to Be Effective in Non-Academic UCD and Nudge Work

Ten Years Applying Psychological Science Inside the U.K. Government offers lessons for how postgraduate education can be broadened to prepare PhDs to work and lead effectively beyond the academy. Including: study qualitative research methods, learn to write for a general audience as well as for academic journals, work in multi-disciplinary groups, and undertake messy real-world projects.

Such as helping pilots to land safely, or nudging everyone to wear a wide-brimmed hat and apply sunscreen.

Geoff

Brunch With Petra at the Museum

Petra Vaiglova is now Senior Lecturer in Archaeological Science at the Australian National University in Canberra. I posted here about meeting her for the first time, when she visited The University of Melbourne a few years back.

Geoff, Petra, and Stephen. Behind is a very early model Holden, manufactured in Australia, towing a caravan also of about 1950.

Since then she has published two especially notable open-access articles, the first being How can we improve statistical training in archaeological science?

Improving statistical training in archaeology science

Here’s the graphical abstract, the great work of Kathryn Killackey:

See the P.P.S. below for the full abstract.

Teeth, and ritual feasting a long long time ago

The second article, also open-access, is Transport of animals underpinned ritual feasting at the onset of the Neolithic in southwestern Asia, which reports a highly innovative study, led by Petra, of teeth from an Early Neolithic site in Iran.

I was recently in Canberra and, happily, could catch up with Petra and her partner, Stephen, for brunch at the National Museum cafe. I enjoyed a very good brunch, with animated and highly interesting discussion.

Geoff

P.S. Petra also very kindly made the trek from Canberra to join a rcent party marking my 80th birthday.

Yikes!

P.P.S. The abstract of Petra’s statistics article:

  • Raising the standard for statistical training in archaeology will improve the breadth and depth of archaeological science.
  • Improving statistical training can start by discussing five fundamental statistical concepts that archaeologists do not talk about enough.
  • Supervisors can help make statistical training more effective by advocating for statistical reform and Open Science.

The aim of this paper is to shine light on fundamental statistical concepts that archaeologists do not talk about enough. I argue that more deliberate discussion of these statistical ‘elephants in the room’ can have a positive impact on improving statistical training and on steering us away from perpetuation of poor research practices.

1) Statistical thinking should come first. This will help us break down some of the stigma around numbers and statistics, and set us up for building analytical frameworks that will provide the most informative answers to our research questions.

2) Descriptive and inferential statistics have different interpretative potential. This will clarify how we can move from using tools that only allow us to talk about our studied samples to using tools that enable us to draw inferences about the underlying populations from which the samples derived.

3) p values can be extremely variable. This will help spread awareness about the misuses and misconceptions of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) and demonstrate the dangers of using significance thresholds to interpret data.

4) Statistical precision is not the same as measurement precision. This will bring attention to the many different types of uncertainties that are built into archaeological datasets (e.g., statistical precision, instrument measurement error, natural variation),.Recognising this is key for drawing reliable inferences from our data.

5) Meta-analyses and forest plots can be useful for synthesising previous research. This will help spread awareness about the benefit of meta-analyses for creating evidence-driven summaries of previous findings.

The discussion draws on examples from isotope archaeologybioarchaeology, and organic residue analysis to illustrate how switching from a reliance on significance testing to a reliance on effect sizes can improve methodological rigour and the representativeness of our findings. The paper ends with a discussion of the roles and responsibilities of supervisors for creating an effective learning environment for statistical training. This includes, but is not limited to, acknowledging the problems of NHST and advocating for adherence to Open Science principles. Ultimately, the changes suggested in this paper will help us raise discipline-wide standards for quantitative training and improve both the breadth and the depth of archaeological research.

Simine Vazire Drops In for Dinner!

Of course I had to wear my APS uniform. You can just see, over Simine’s shoulder, the stunning artwork, portions of which appear on the cover of all my books.

It was great to see Simine last night, and to hear about the latest from APS and the world of journal editing. Her great love is still journal editing–very fortunately for psychology and indeed all of science. But when she wants quiet time for writing she takes to the road, finding quiet corners to use her laptop in coffee shops or, I was surprised to hear, breweries!

This last week she has slowly driven down from Sydney, coffee shop by coffee shop, to spend time with Fiona Fidler and with the MetaMelb group at The University of Melbourne.

Plastic plate, after 30 years of
trips through the dishwasher

She dropped in for a tuna pasta dinner, which grandkids Lucy and Zoe always request. Simine ate off this StatPlay classic picture of the green heap, long since renamed the mean heap.

These days you can explore the dances and many other goodies in esci web.

Enjoy!

The mean heap, from esci web

Geoff

P.S. On a personal note, we recently had a busy month to mark my 80th birthday (yikes!)–wonderful chamber music, two big parties, and now, to cap it off, a visit from Simine!

Research Priorities in Climate and Health Research

The best research method–of course–but also philosophy, ethics, global heating and health: What more could we want? This article, below, discusses all that and more. And, by the way, the lead author happens to be my son, Toby Cumming.

Here’s the abstract:
Toby Cumming

Rapid global warming is triggering a wide range of changes to the climate, and these changes are compromising many aspects of human health and well-being. As a research community, we lack the time and resources to investigate the efficacy of every possible climate adaptation strategy for protecting health. Thus, we require a logical and ethical framework to inform prioritization of our climate-health research efforts. In this paper, we propose a utilitarian approach: our research focus should be on adaptation strategies that provide the greatest health and well-being for the greatest number. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) – equal to one year of healthy life lost – allows us to compare across markedly different health outcomes and adaptation approaches. Given the importance of cost-effectiveness in resource-constrained settings, we could prioritize adaptation approaches based on “cost per DALY averted”. Equally, we could base a priority ranking on “cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained”. A DALY- or QALY-based ranking would not be the end product, but a quantifiable first step to frame prioritization discussions. Adopting a utilitarian approach is useful in extending this frame beyond considering only the health of current-day humans to also consider the health of future humans and the suffering of non-human animals. While the approach does have limits – to ensure an equitable prioritization we need to consider aspects of fairness and justice, moral concepts that utilitarianism has some difficulty incorporating – we argue that it provides a helpful starting point in prioritizing the climate-health adaptation research agenda.

Finally

My congratulations to Toby and co-authors. For Toby, I happen to know this article draws heavily on his theoretical essay written, way back, as part of his Honours year in Psychology at La Trobe University. It was his outstanding performance in that year that took him to Cambridge for a PhD–and a wonderful three years of playing golf at the best courses up and down the British Isles. His PhD supervisor’s initial suggestion for his thesis title was “What I did when I wasn’t playing golf”. His recent passion project has been this book about the Australian golf courses designed in the 1950s and ’60s by Vern Morcom.

Whether you have a taste for climate change and health, or golf, please enjoy!

Geoff

The International Research Integrity Conference

Simon Gandevia, a giant in the research integrity community, assembled an international A-list of incredible speakers–plus me–for this Conference (IRIC) recently in Sydney.

Diversity of disciplines, but a common focus

There were more than 100 registrants, so the presentation room was usually packed. A striking feature was our enormous diversity of disciplines: medicine, law, neuroscience, statistics, psychology, journalism, education… and more. Our common focus was the integrity of research, Open Science, and meta-research (research on how research is done). Most presentations to the conference were either an alarming assessment of how the research literature has been polluted, or a (sometimes) encouraging evaluation of efforts to improve integrity.

We felt strongly about so many things, with emotions swinging wildly. Mainly we felt enormous pride in group cohesion across such a diversity of backgrounds, and conviction that our mission–the very trustworthiness of research–is enormously important.

Paper mills, fakery, and more

But then we’d despair when a speaker documented the extend of deadly pollution spreading in the scientific literature, from old-fashioned fakery to plagiarism and fake manuscripts sold by paper mills. Anyone wanting to bulk up their cv can buy an AI-generated manuscript and submit it to a dozen journals. The best journals will identify the fakery, these days using AI to help, but some ‘vanity’ journal will publish the manuscript after a bogus peer review process–of course for a hefty payment. What criminality! What waste, especially of the time and effort of expert editors!

The memorable conference dinner was held on the roof deck of the stunning new Museum of Contemporary Art. Champagne in hand, sun setting on the harbour bridge to the left, opera house to the right: what’s not to like?

Significance Roulette released to the world

I’m delighted to say my brief presentation was very well received. Most importantly, I released to the world for the first time Bradley Dean‘s Significance Roulette that you can download, save, and run in your browser. Or simply go to esci web and select the significance roulette menu item to see and run the roulette wheel.

From here you can download my powerpoint slides, also a pdf summary, and the .html file you can save to your computer and run in your browser to enjoy significance roulette.

Read more about the rationale for significance roulette here.

Good luck at the p value casino!

Geoff

John Self, AI Pioneer, Chats With ChatGPT

A Chat with ChatGPT by a veteran AI researcher

John Self entered the field of AI in the early 1970s. He’s a distinguished scholar who can claim to have introduced the idea of user model in his 1974 article (while visiting The University of Melbourne). He was writing in the context of AI in Education, a field in which he was a pioneer and long-time leader. Released in 2005, his last AI book is humane and broad, on open access and an excellent read: Whoever Said Computers Would be Intelligent 

John generously hosted what was for me an important sabbatical, in Lancaster in 1988. For a couple of decades back then my research was as a psychologist in AIEd. Many in that field (not John, and not some of the other leading lights) were IT tragics with a view that human learning was little more than turning on the tap to fill the bucket. John’s landmark contribution in 1974 was to recognise that any IT (‘intelligent tutor’, the pretentious term back then) that individualised its response to a student must contain a model of that student. The crudest might be merely a note of where that student was up to in the book. Typically it would comprise a record of previous student work, correct responses and errors, and earlier comments by the IT.

Early Intelligent Tutors (ITs)

Many of those early ITs supported learners to achieve impressive gains on tests, especially in science and computing fields. Interactions resembled those in ‘direct instruction’ classrooms. Direct instruction is highly structured and is coming back into vogue in many countries, often for early reading and numeracy. However, then as now, many students find the interactions stultifying. Grit your teeth and use an IT to quickly get up to speed with LISP! But a fulfilling education, perhaps not 🙁

Learner Models in ITs

My role in AIEd was often to be the maverick critic, despairing of the poverty of typical learner models. I and colleagues studied transcripts of tutoring interactions of expert teachers with individual learners when given occasional chances to interact. Think of a teacher wandering in a class working as individuals. The teacher has a brief interaction with an individual, initiated by a student requesting help, or the teacher walking by and choosing to interrupt.

Human Tutoring and Learner Models

Not surprisingly, the interactions were often brief, just a single Q&A in either direction, or little more. But they were highly diverse. The Q might be about motivation, feelings, seemingly irrelevant things that affect the learner’s work and thinking. Brief explanations can of course be valuable, but possibly the most valuable comments were often much higher-level, about strategy, or motivation. “Inspiring” is possibly the most valuable teacher ability, as hopefully we all remember. Human teachers have learner models for their individual learners. These models are likely fragmentary in many respects, but they are, most importantly, highly diverse. Achieving this richness was the enormous challenge for IT researchers seeking to model good tutoring. It remains a core challenge for any AI intended to be used by a person.

Rainbow over Kisdon in Swaledale: From the home page of Saunterings

John the Fell Runner and Hill Walker

For decades John was an immensely fit fell runner, spending hours and days in the hills of North-West England. He stopped running in 2017, then from 2018 has been posting online reflections and great photos from his Saunterings in the hills, dales, and moors near Lancaster and surrounds.

ChatGPT’s User Model

John started by asking “What do you think of Saunterings by John Self?” I’m guessing John had front of mind trying to diagnose ChatGPT’s model of its user–John. What did it know about, what did it assume about John? John gives his own commentary, commenting on the AI responses and telling us a little of his own thinking. Lots of fascinating stuff there, especially as John picks apart what seems to be underlying the conversation.

ChatGPT adopts a chatty, deferential, friendly, explanatory style, quick to apologise and explain its own errors. John could of course ask it to adopt a different perspective and style–it immediately did so, and quite convincingly.

John’s Insights

John’s first overall reaction was astonishment that ChatGPT could do so well, and so blindingly fast. Then follows pure gold as John extends his Q&A to investigate various thoughts about how the IT works, what assumptions it makes, how it formulates opinions, and where its boundaries lie. To what extent does it build a model of John? To what extent is it merely integrating the results from a huge number of searches, or is it reasoning about these? John eventually concludes that he cannot trust ChatGPT and cannot follow its reasoning–because there isn’t any. I won’t try to summarise: you need to read John’s final paragraphs to get the rich story.

Extremely well-informed gold!

Geoff

“The New Statistics” by INXS: Why Not?!

Thanks to Prof Dena A. Pastor, of James Madison University for this suggestion.

Whenever you hear the hit New Sensation, by Australian rock band INXS, replace “A new sensation” with “The New Statistics”. This works for me (of course it would), even if the ’80s are a bit recent for me.

Enjoy!

Geoff

What We’ll Never Know

Message just in from James Pennebaker, President of the APS, about a sadly highly important project by Tim Wilson. Tim is collecting a bunch of short punchy videos on the theme of ‘what we’ll never know’–because Trump has just cancelled our research funding.

The first four are already up at https://www.youtube.com/@TimothyWilson18

Use these to lobby your local politicians, etc. Maybe also suggest further leading researchers who might make videos. Suggestions to Tim at tdw@virginia.edu

U.S. funding cuts are also having drastic repercussions around the world–a substantial proportion of Australia’s leading researchers have U.S. funding, often as part of international collaborations. Here we’re all seeing that all-to-familiar combination of disbelief, uncertainty, despair… as highly promising programs are trashed, data destroyed, billions wasted…

Weeping,

Geoff

Vale Mac (Malcolm Macmillan): Psychologist, Historian, and True Scholar

A memorable gathering at Melbourne University recently celebrated the remarkable life and contributions of Malcolm Bruce Macmillan (Mac) (1 Jan 1929—11 Aug 2024).

Mac was one of the Monash University intro teachers in 1966 who helped me discover psychology as an absorbing science. I happily switched from physics and have been with psych and stats ever since. Thanks Mac! I’ll say a little here about two of his books.

Phineas Gage and the Tamping Iron

Numerous textbooks include brief accounts of the railway worker who, in 1848, miraculously survived—for 11 years!—a massive metal bar destroying much of his left frontal lobe. Seeking a case study to illustrate a lecture, Mac discovered how little was known of Gage and his story.

After many years and painstaking chasing of original sources round the world, in 2000 An Odd Kind of Fame appeared (MIT Press). A preview is here. It’s an enormous work, beautifully written, describing how the case has been used and misused as neuroscience has developed.

Mac’s Gage page here is a wonderful trove of (accurate!) Gage information. Read here about the 150th anniversary meeting Mac organized, which was held in Cavendish, Vermont where the accident happened. You can see here the memorial plaque unveiled during the meeting.

Freud Evaluated

Mac’s even larger exposition and critique of Freud’s work has become a classic. Arising from maybe two decades of study and writing, Freud Evaluated appeared in 1997 (MTI Press). A preview of an earlier version is here. An interview that gives a good idea of Mac’s incisive analysis (sorry!) of Freud’s ideas and methods is here.

International Society for the History of the Neurosciences

Mac was a co-founder of the Society and, for many years, an active contributor. He was also a co-founder, and co-editor 2005-2017, of the Journal of the History of the Neurosciences.

And furthermore…

I could go on. His book Snowy Campbell: Australian Pioneer Investigator of the Brain (2016). His role in developing clinical psychology in Australia… and that’s not to mention the Macmillan tartan kilt, single malts, and jazz.

Above all, a distinguished scholar, and a warm, engaging person.

Geoff

P.S. Thanks to Edith, Mac’s partner, for assistance with this post.