The Spooky Men: A Last-Minute Meditation/Entreaty From Down Under

Watch The Spooky Men’s Chorale (3 min) here. (First uploaded four years ago.)

We have followed The Spooky Men for years, with their wondrous a capella harmonies and moving lyrics. They have just sent this message:

dear world
we are the spooky men
you know that we are silly
you know that we become silliness, that silliness becomes us
we have beards, we have jokes
but also you know that underneath that we are men who hold things dear: things of goodness, warmth, strength
we believe in things, in this world
and now we stand at our darkest moment, the moment when such things as we believe face their gravest threat
years ago we asked the question: do we speak his name?
do we speak his name on stage, amongst ourselves?
the answer was, had to be no
because that would be the very thing he wanted, to add fuel to his fire
and for us, that still holds true
instead, we wrote a song
so now please forgive us, we must do the only thing we can do, even though it feels like it is not much, that there is an inferno, and we are flicking a teaspoon of water from 40 paces…
and thus we send you this song <see link at the start, above>

If the U.S. steps away from leadership in the world’s campaign against climate change, our children, grandchildren, and all future generations will pay a grievous price. In the words of Joëlle Gergis, that would be ‘An intergenerational crime against humanity’

The world holds its breath. We can’t vote. If you can, please consider.

In hope,

Geoff

Booklisti. For Finding Interesting Books, Now Including ITNS2

Exploring Booklisti is a neat way to find good books to read.

Booklisti, would you believe, comprises lots of short lists of books that hang together. I have two lists, ITNS2 appearing in each. My first list is just UTNS, my first book, and ITNS2, our second edition of the intro book.

My second list (go to that site for links to the books listed below), titled Open Science and how to do better research with better statistics, comprises:

Introduction to The New Statistics, Second Edition By Geoff Cumming and Robert Calin-Jageman

Understanding The New Statistics By Geoff Cumming

A Student’s Guide to Open Science By Charlotte Pennington

The Seven Deadly Sins of Psychology: A Manifesto for Reforming the Culture of Scientific Practice By Chris Chambers

Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth By Stuart Ritchie

Beyond Significance Testing By Rex B. Kline

Research Methods in Psychology: Evaluating a World of Information By Beth Morling

The Design of Experiments in Neuroscience By Mary E. Harrington

Happy exploring of Booklisti and happy reading.

Geoff

Choosing a Textbook Cover Design

It’s a delicious moment when the publisher sends a number of options their graphic designer has dreamed up for the cover. Below are the options for the three books. In each case, can you pick our choice? Our choices are below—don’t scroll down yet… 

UTNS (2012) …at left.

ITNS1 (2017) …below.

ITNS2 (2024) …below.

The three sets, all framed expertly by Lindsay my wife, hang above my desk:

Our Choices …do you think we got it right?

UTNS (2012) …at left

Middle option

 ITNS1 (2017) …at right

Leftmost option

ITNS2 (2024) …below

Top right option, as below left. (We were offered just the other five but asked to see the bottom right design in the bottom left colours, so Routledge sent the top right option, which we chose.)

However, when we received our printed books, we discovered that Routledge had actually used a modification of our chosen design, as at right. Not exactly our choice, but not bad.

‘Treasure’: Claire’s Gorgeous Resin Artwork

Treasure, at left, by Claire Layman, 150 × 50cm, resin on stretched canvas. Claire is an internationally recognised artist, also a longtime friend.

Walk into our living room and be struck by the vibrancy and depth of colour of Treasure, so much more alive than any small printed copy can be.

Claire generously agreed that Treasure could be used on the cover of our three statistics textbooks. See the note on the copyright page of each.

At right, top to bottom:

UTNS (2012)

ITNS1 (2017)

ITNS2 (2024)

People often make comments like: “Looks like slices through some sort of stones”, “It’s wriggling things under a microscope!” or “Go snorkelling and see things like those?”

Claire’s response is “It’s an artwork, see it as you wish!” She mentions also that there’s no official top or bottom: hang it horizontally or vertically, either way up.

Besides looking great, is there any justification for it appearing on statistics books? People often make comments like: “There’s a pattern of those blues—oh, no there’s not”, or “Look, those ones sort-of alternate, but not quite”. Claire says that she often “starts to make a pattern, then breaks it”. That all sounds to me like trying to find some sort of regularity in randomness, which is one way of describing the aim of statistical inference: Can we identify a difference, or other pattern, lurking in the sampling variability, how large or strong is that pattern, and how confident can we be in our conclusion? That’s the central concern of our books.

Do you agree with the graphic designer’s choice of part-images from Treasure for the covers?

Geoff

NEXT: Choosing a cover design.     

Vale Danny Kahneman, Giant of Statistical Cognition and Much Else

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Danny Kahneman died on 27 March at 90. The APS announcement is here. I’ve posted about him before. The best quick read may be this 2016 New Yorker piece by Cass R. Sunstein and Richard Thaler of Nudge fame.

He won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2002 for foundational work on behavioural economics that was joint with Amos Tversky, who died in 1996.

I have two particular reasons for thinking of him:

‘Law’ of Small Numbers

A misconception rather than a law, this was described in the famous article Kahneman and Tversky (1971): Even quantitatively literate psychology researchers were likely to grossly over-estimate the probability that a replication of a study that obtained p = .05 would itself be statistically significant. This was a very early example of statistical cognition, the field that has been my primary research interest these last 25 years or so.

Moreover, that demonstration of drastic under-estimation of the sampling variability of the p value helped prompt my development of the dance of the p values, p intervals (Cumming, 2008), and statistical roulette–all of which are attempts to dramatise the sampling variability of p. I have hoped that such dramatisations would help undermine researchers’ seeming addiction to p values that has persisted despite numerous cogent critiques over more than half a century.

Anne Treisman

Anne, a distinguished cognitive psychologist, during 1968-1971 supervised my DPhil research at Oxford. In 1978 she married Daniel Kahneman. They moved to North America and were together at Princeton for many years before her death in 2018.

She appears at left receiving from Obama the U.S. National Medal of Science in 2013.

I salute the memory of these two fine scientists from whom I’ve learned an enormous amount.

Geoff

Cumming, G. (2008). Replication and p Intervals: p values predict the future only vaguely, but confidence intervals do much better. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 3(4), 286–300. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6924.2008.00079.x

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76(2), 105–110. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0031322

Vale Bob Rosenthal, Statistical Reform Leader and Much Else

I was much saddened to read of the death last month of Bob Rosenthal. See this obituary; and another in the New York Times.

I met him first in 1996 when I called on him at Harvard to discuss statistical reform. What a gentle, encouraging, and thoroughly nice person! What a giant intellect! He loved nothing better than to find innovative solutions to tricky problems.

Considering statistical reform and Open Science:

  • He was an early proponent of a focus on effect sizes, especially his favourite, Pearson correlation, r.
  • He was a pioneer of meta-analysis and identified what he called the file-drawer effect.
  • Rosenthal and Gaito (1963) reported evidence that researchers’ confidence in an effect drops sharply as the p value increases past .05; they labelled this the cliff effect. This was an early example of statistical cognition–the empirical study of how people understand statistical concepts and reports. We still need much more of that, imho.
  • Around 2009 Jerry Lai wanted to investigate the cliff effect as part of his PhD. He sent Bob a very polite request for any further information about the original study. Promptly, back came an encouraging message to Jerry and a scan of several hand-written pages of the original data. From almost 50 years earlier! A wonderful example of Open Data (well, available data), with no excuses about hard disk crashes and superseded storage formats.
  • He advocated analysis of well-chosen contrasts as better than the customary reliance on Anova and p values (*, **, ***, or ns) to interpret omnibus main and interaction effects. He stated that “the problem is that omnibus tests … do not usually tell us anything we really want to know”. Contrast Analysis: Focused Comparisons in the Analysis of Variance (1985) by Rosenthal and Rosnow remains an accessible and powerful explanation. UTNS, and both editions of ITNS take this planned contrast approach (these days, with preregistration) to the analysis of complex designs.
  • In 2008 Fiona Fidler and I were working on Confidence Intervals : Better Answers to Better Questions. We sent a draft to Bob who was working on an accompanying article Effect Sizes : Why, When, and How to Use Them. Bob responded with enthusiasm, saying he loved our article and also offering valuable suggestions.

Bob’s nickname among his students was “Prof ARRRZZZental“, recognising his love of correlation r.

I salute his memory and his enduring contribution to improving how we do things.

Geoff

Brian Nosek weighs in on the 2nd edition of ITNS

We’re so excited about the impending release of the 2nd edition of Introduction to the New Statistics. And we’re extremely grateful that some friends of good science have taken the time to look at the new edition and provide some thoughts. Here’s an assessment that has us glowing from Brian Nosek, co-founder of the Center for Open Science and SIPS, and previous winner of a Golden Goose Award (!).

Introduction to the New Statistics [This] is A next generation statistics textbook. Doing statistics is not the rote application of formulas and reporting answers. Statistics is a tool to support reasoning about evidence. Cumming and Calin-Jageman provide an accessible introduction to using statistics to improve reasoning. New Statistics integrates two features that are absent from other texts: meta-analysis and open science. No single study or statistical outcome provides the answer to a research question. New Statistics teaches data analysis in the context of combining evidence across many studies to gain confidence in conclusions. Also, the best data analysts will plan and show how they made their decisions to enable others to assess their reasoning. New Statistics deftly integrates open science in every chapter to illustrate how transparency and rigor are fundamental to doing statistics well.

Brian Nosek
Executive Director, Center for Open Science
Professor, University of Virginia

Welcome Simine! Our New Cajoler-in-Chief

Stop Press:

Metascience

“Is metascience, and promotion of Open Science practices, the most urgent and consequential field for all of science at present? Maybe yes.” I wrote that about the latest AIMOS meeting (here). Now a leading metascientist is the incoming Editor-in-Chief of Psychological Science, arguably psychology’s flagship journal. Rejoice!

Psychological Science leading

Eric Eich probably first brought statistics reform and Open Science to many researchers’ consciousness with his famous editorial Business Not As Usual in Jan 2014. Following the editorial was my The New Statistics: Why and How, commissioned by Eric. Submitting authors suddenly needed to do things very differently–in a good way. Eric kept the advances coming.

Steve Lindsay, next in the job, kept up the progress. He modestly summarized the advances he and Eric had made in Swan Song Editorial at the end of 2019. I posted about that here. Progress has continued since.

Simine

In June 2019 Simine posted had i been editor in chief–her Vision Statement submitted as part of selection of the previous Editor-in-Chief of Psychological Science. It remains a fascinating read. It struck me at the time as about the strongest application anyone could possibly make. I won’t speculate how she might have revised her statement this time round but, happily, it did the job.

Simine now lives in Sydney with her newish husband Alex Holcombe, also a psychologist and metascientist. As noted above, Simine’s appointment is at the University of Melbourne. When in Melbourne she often stays with Fiona Fidler, her co-director of the MetaMelb Lab.

Join with me in wishing Simine all strength in her new role as Cajoler-in-Chief of us all to keep pushing for better.

Geoff

2nd Edition Now With Routledge!

Bob and I are delighted to report that we’ve submitted ITNS2 to the publisher. Routledge say to expect it ‘early in 2024’. We’re hoping they may have something in time for faculty making textbook decisions for the N. Hemisphere Spring Semester.

Not only a new cover design, but also: Bob’s wonderful esci 1.0.1 is now available in jamovi, with a new name and new logo.

esci is now Estimation Statistics with Confidence Intervals, and the logo is:

The floating difference axis is a worthy logo because it’s so central to our estimation approach, and appears in so many esci analyses.

Bob will have more to say about esci 1.0.1 but here’s how to start:

  • At the jamovi downloads page, click the latest version for your choice of Windows, macOS, or Linux. (Currently 2.4.5 for Windows.) Install jamovi.
  • In jamovi, click the large plus sign, top right, choose ‘Manage Installed’, scroll through the ‘Available’ modules to find esci 1.0.1, click to install.
  • Enjoy seeing a new menu appear: esci with its logo.

We hope all these goodies serve you and your students well and we look forward to hearing about your experiences.

Geoff

Guess what?

I am not a robot, that’s what!

Here’s perhaps the coolest gift I (Bob) have ever received: A rendering of me in a Marina and the Diamonds album cover by multi-talented Dominican University student Theresa Wilsterman. Every detail in this image is something special from our lab, and I am not ashamed to say that I can sing along to every note of this song. We’re all Marina, really, aren’t we?